|
When do you think the first mission will be? It's objective? How about
subsequent missions, and what will their objectives be?
Dec. 14,2001
I am hoping that we can send an unmanned mapping mission with a lander
to Phobos or Deimos in the next
five to ten years. The first manned mission may be five to ten years after
that.
The exact details of the missions need to be worked out and as the plan
is worked out it will probably evolve over time. At this time, however,
I think that the first manned mission will be to Phobos or Deimos,
one of the moon of Mars.
This first mission will concentrate on setting up life support systems
such as greenhouses, solar energy collectors, shielding the space
habitats with soil, and drilling for water (ice) and volatiles. Once
these life support systems are in place, subsequent missions can stay
longer. The first mission will also conduct geological surveys to determine
the resources available for colony expansion. Subsequent missions will
set up fuel production facilities. This will help reduce the cost of
missions by making it unecessary to take along fuel for the return trip.
In fact, this fuel can also be used to power the outgoing leg of the trip
from low Earth orbit to Mars. After this,
ore processing facilities, and facilities for the manufacture of
structural components for colony expansion (metals, glass, and ceramics)
will become a priority. During this time detailed surveys of the Martian
surface will be conducted. The next step will be to land a team on Mars
itself. That part is easy, the difficult part is getting the team back
up from off of the surface of Mars. Zubrin wants to make propellants on
Mars using energy from nuclear reactors. However, I suspect that running
a nuclear reactor on the surface of Mars may turn out to be more challenging than
he thinks. Properly disposing of nuclear waste on Mars with limited manpower
is a serious technological challenge. The first
missions may need to take their return fuel with them. That will not be
prohibitively expensive if that fuel comes from Phobos rather than from
Earth. A cycle of exploration and development similar to that on Phobos
will then take place on Mars itself. As the colony grows there will come
a time when people will simply want to stay on Mars, so the return trip
will not be such an important issue. Of course, this whole plan is
dependent on the existence of water ice on Phobos, or Deimos which seems
to be quite likely. (See
link1, and
link2
for more info.) Otherwise, the first colony would have to be on Mars itself.
This would be more complicated but is still very feasible.
|
|
|
|
|
